Season 5 Flashback: Pre-Season Predictions Revisited

[theGman]

About two weeks before the start of Season 5 I came up with a power ranking listing for all the contestants. It was more or less based on absolutely nothing whatsoever but my initial reaction to the contestants picture and what little description ABC gave to us about them.

DwtS is one of only three shows that I watch regularly (the others being LOST and Friday Night Lights- Jericho will join the list when it comes back), so I've had plenty of time to analyze the progress each contestant made. Now that the season is over, I wonder how accurate those predictions actually were. Let's find out (in order of elimination):

Josie Maran
Actual Placement: 12th
My Prediction: 9th
I predicted that Josie's looks would give her a boost with the voters, despite her lack of name recognition. As it turns out, super models are "deceptively unfit." She wasn't a good dancer by any means, giving her a double whammy and a knock-out blow the first week of competition. Had she been able to dance, I think she and her partner would have had great chemistry, but let's face it: a dancer she was not.


Albert Reed
Actual Placement: 11th
My Prediction: 12th
I was close! At least people were familiar with the Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue (the lone piece of recognition for Josie). Albert had absolutely zero name recognition and many were puzzeled as to how ABC considered him a celebrity worthy of competing on the show. Oddly enough, he got booted after doing a much better dance than during Week 1. Not a big shocker to lose him so early, but he probably could have made it to the middle of the pack.


Wayne Newton
Actual Placement: 10th
My Prediction: 7th
I knew he wouldn't be able to do all the demanding spins and moves from the Latin dances, but who knew he would have sucked so badly? I gave him the benfit of the doubt and assumed the geriatric generation would have voted for him in droves, since little grey-haired old ladies love Wayne Newton. Never a contender in my mind, but I'm glad I was wrong about where he would finish up.


Floyd Mayweather
Actual Placement: 9th
My Prediction: 5th
There is a lesson to be learned here: Just because a boxer did fabulous last season doesn't mean a male counterpart can do the same. You cannot judge a book by its cover and Floyd proved it. He was too macho and too aggressive. Laila Ali had grace and intelligence. Floyd seemed more like your typical egotistical boxer. This was a silly judgement on my part.


Mark Cuban
Acutal Placement: 8th
My Prediction: 10th
He exceeded my expectations, but that's not saying much. He really had a lot of fun and didn't hurt his reputation by taking part in the show (how can you tarnish a reputation for being off the wall?). He was the last of the true bottom-feeders to go home, allowing the competition to get more serious the rest of the way out. And he did it all on a recently replaced hip! Too bad there are no points for gusto.


Sabrina Bryan
Actual Placement: 7th
My Prediction: 8th
Am I surprised? Yes and no. Sabrina blew us all away with her moves and seemed to be on the fast track to the Finals. But I knew she would suffer a lack of name recognition, which ultimately did her in. If you don't have name recognition, people will only vote for you so long as you dance well. Sabrina slipped up one time and it bit her in the butt. I'm not surprised, but it was a shame, because she really had talent (having prior dance training of any kind always helps). It's a shame that there's not much loyalty among viewers, but that's how it goes.


Jane Seymour
Actual Placement: 6th
My Prediction: 2nd
Between Dr. Quinn fans and the fact that Jane exudes elegance. I though she might be able to handle to faster dances, despite her age, but that was before I heard that she had a few fused vertebrae. She rocked the Ballroom numbers but fell flat on the Latin dances. Lesson learned: Do at least SOME research into the contestants next year to find out any physical problems BEFORE making pre-season predictions.


Cameron Mathison
Actual Placement: 5th
My Prediction: 3rd
Had it not been for Marie Osmond, my prediction just might have come true. Cameron was easily in contention for 4th place, but the portly doll designer wrecked all that. I thought Cameron would be carried well by his soap opera fanbase, and I was right. I also said he would be one of the biggest surprises of the year. Boy I'm good sometimes!


Jennie Garth
Actual Placement: 4th
My Prediction: 6th
Another over-achiever, though I thought she might surprise us from the beginning. I knew her ties to 90210 would help her out, but she surprised me with her ability and growth. She also had a pleasent personality (rather than being stuck up and all high and holy about having been on said show). Being partnered with one of the Hough clan helped boost their notarity as well.


Marie Osmond
Actual Placement: 3rd
My Prediction: 11th
Who knew there were that many Mormons and doll collectors out there? Granted, Marie showed that she could dance a little bit (though it took a few awful weeks to warm up), but she wasn't even Top 5 caliber. She robbed Sabrina, Cameron and Jennie of rightfuly advancing in the competition. I still can't believe she had the nerve to act surprised by her low Finals scores. Mediocre at best, sucky at worst, Marie was this seasons Jerry Springer or Billy Ray Cyrus. Or, if you want to make comparisons to another mega-hit reality competiton, she was the Sanjaya of DwtS.


Mel B.
Actual Placement: 2nd
My Prediction: 4th
I like being wrong, as long as the person proving me wrong deserves it. Mel deserved it. I said early on that her Spice Girl days will help her, as any choreography experience is a bonus. But I also thought her post-pregnancy shape might hurt her. It didn't. If nothing else, she lost the preggers pounds and is now in great shape to kick it on tour with the Spice Grils. I wouldn't have minded if she had won, which is a first for me. In the past I've always found myself cherring for one specific contestant in the Finals and disliking the other. (I've only been watching since Season 3)


Helio Castroneves
Actual Placement: 1st
My Prediction: 1st
Woo Hoo! The only prediction I made that is 100% correct is the one that matters most! I knew his fitness from racing was a huge bonus and it helped to be partnered with Julianne. I said the only thing keeping him from winning would be a lack of dancing ability. Well, the man can dance! The combination of his charm and Julianne's skill was a winning combination from the beginning.


Hopefully next year I can repeat my successful prognostication for the winner. Bu we'll have to find out come the srping.

[dwtsfanatix]

i thought sabrina would have made it at least 3rd or 4th