American Idol 7: Analyzing the Vegas Odds to Win

oscardahl · 03-14-2008, 09:08 AM

American Idol isn't very easy to predict. All we have to do is take a glance at the results of last season, when both Jordin Sparks and Blake Lewis came out of nowhere to finish in first and second place, respectively. Jordin was always a mild favorite, but she really turned it on in the second half of the season and improved considerably as the season moved along. Blake Lewis was almost an afterthought entering the Top 24 – no one expected him to emerge like he did. This season on American Idol, some prohibitive favorites have been identified early in the season. I was thinking about coming up with my own odds to win for each remaining American Idol contestant, but then I realized that I'm no a Vegas handicapper – might as well leave these things up to the experts. So, I took the current Vegas odds for each of the Top 11 (courtesy of Sportsbook.com) and looked to see where Vegas's head is at regarding this season of Idol.

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TheEditor · 03-14-2008, 04:33 PM

It's odd there's such a huge gap between the top 4 and everyone else. It's downright silly to have Castro and Johns at the same odds as Syesha. In general, though, take their top four, add in Johns and Castro, and you have my top six predix. Ladies are gonna start to exit in a big way.I agree with Oscar that, if Johns can get his act together and go back to Bohemian Rhapsody-esque performances, those are good odds for someone who could possibly win.

justcuzifeltlikechangingthis · 03-14-2008, 05:56 PM

I didnt hate him when the competition started but I also am sick of David Archuleta

LegendKiller23 · 03-14-2008, 08:00 PM

They keep saying this season is the best talent ever. I think two years ago it was better. I cant get into this season at all.

jvince · 03-15-2008, 04:09 AM

Talent-wise, I think David Cook should win. He made old songs sound current and most of his performances (especially the last two) could easily be radio hits. Plus, it's about time a rocker wins Idol. Hopefully, America hasn't forgotten about what happened to Chris Daughtry, because he was obviously the best among his group, yet he finished at fourth.

But sadly, it looks like Archuleta is gonna win. I don't get how lots of people like him. He's a good singer, but there are at least two others in the competition who are better than him. If the competition was decided by judging and not voting, I would've sent him home for forgetting the lyrics to a Beatles song. Well, I would've sent Kristy Lee home first for hillbilly-fying "Eight Days A Week," but still, that wasn't acceptable.

I also don't hear anything special about Brooke. She sounds like a top 6 finisher at best, but maybe it's just me.

My top 2 would be David Cook and Michael Johns (who I believe will start to turn it on soon)

carjean · 03-15-2008, 06:35 AM

I agree with jvince about Brooke. I would put her music on my player but there is nothing special about her. I'm leaning towards Michael Johns as the most likely to have a real carreer. I like David Cook's style, but man, you could see these guys at open mikes all over...they just don't stand out for me.

pharmboy · 03-15-2008, 06:51 AM

I absolutely agree that Johns has a great chance to win. It seems he has been content to place in the top half/middle by playing safe songs relatively straight, while watching the weak contestants blow it. His issue will that he and Cook are very similar in who they would appeal to and Cook has won a large fan base BECAUSE he has taken serious chances. In terms of rating the singers on their chance to win, no way should Castro, Syesha & Ramielle be rated on par with Johns.

I would put CHickeze much higher and lower Castro a few notches. The guitar/balladeer thing with Castro works now, but we'll see how far that takes him. CHickezee is a good performer, the problem with him up until last week has been song selection. He is versatile and charismatic which I think will take him a long way, probably not winning but I could see him knocking Carly or Johns out of the top 5.

schwa044 · 03-15-2008, 02:59 PM

i'm with theEditor putting syesha that high is just silly

oscardahl · 03-15-2008, 03:19 PM

Syesha has almost zero chance to win this thing.

03-16-2008, 07:12 AM

I think no matter how negative the judges are to any contestant, it's still the popular votes that matter. But sometimes, too much praising can be a kiss of death.

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03-14-2008, 09:08 AM	#1
oscardahl Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: , , . Posts: 1,449,703	American Idol isn't very easy to predict. All we have to do is take a glance at the results of last season, when both Jordin Sparks and Blake Lewis came out of nowhere to finish in first and second place, respectively. Jordin was always a mild favorite, but she really turned it on in the second half of the season and improved considerably as the season moved along. Blake Lewis was almost an afterthought entering the Top 24 – no one expected him to emerge like he did. This season on American Idol, some prohibitive favorites have been identified early in the season. I was thinking about coming up with my own odds to win for each remaining American Idol contestant, but then I realized that I'm no a Vegas handicapper – might as well leave these things up to the experts. So, I took the current Vegas odds for each of the Top 11 (courtesy of Sportsbook.com) and looked to see where Vegas's head is at regarding this season of Idol. To read the rest, click here.

03-14-2008, 04:33 PM	#2
TheEditor Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Seattle Posts: 1,051,191	It's odd there's such a huge gap between the top 4 and everyone else. It's downright silly to have Castro and Johns at the same odds as Syesha. In general, though, take their top four, add in Johns and Castro, and you have my top six predix. Ladies are gonna start to exit in a big way.I agree with Oscar that, if Johns can get his act together and go back to Bohemian Rhapsody-esque performances, those are good odds for someone who could possibly win.

03-14-2008, 05:56 PM	#3
justcuzifeltlikechangingthis Junior Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 97	I didnt hate him when the competition started but I also am sick of David Archuleta

03-14-2008, 08:00 PM	#4
LegendKiller23 Junior Member Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 96	They keep saying this season is the best talent ever. I think two years ago it was better. I cant get into this season at all.

03-15-2008, 04:09 AM	#5
jvince Senior Member Join Date: May 2006 Location: Still lost in an island with Claire Posts: 2,730	Talent-wise, I think David Cook should win. He made old songs sound current and most of his performances (especially the last two) could easily be radio hits. Plus, it's about time a rocker wins Idol. Hopefully, America hasn't forgotten about what happened to Chris Daughtry, because he was obviously the best among his group, yet he finished at fourth. But sadly, it looks like Archuleta is gonna win. I don't get how lots of people like him. He's a good singer, but there are at least two others in the competition who are better than him. If the competition was decided by judging and not voting, I would've sent him home for forgetting the lyrics to a Beatles song. Well, I would've sent Kristy Lee home first for hillbilly-fying "Eight Days A Week," but still, that wasn't acceptable. I also don't hear anything special about Brooke. She sounds like a top 6 finisher at best, but maybe it's just me. My top 2 would be David Cook and Michael Johns (who I believe will start to turn it on soon)

03-15-2008, 06:35 AM	#6
carjean Junior Member Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 55	I agree with jvince about Brooke. I would put her music on my player but there is nothing special about her. I'm leaning towards Michael Johns as the most likely to have a real carreer. I like David Cook's style, but man, you could see these guys at open mikes all over...they just don't stand out for me.

03-15-2008, 06:51 AM	#7
pharmboy Junior Member Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 55	I absolutely agree that Johns has a great chance to win. It seems he has been content to place in the top half/middle by playing safe songs relatively straight, while watching the weak contestants blow it. His issue will that he and Cook are very similar in who they would appeal to and Cook has won a large fan base BECAUSE he has taken serious chances. In terms of rating the singers on their chance to win, no way should Castro, Syesha & Ramielle be rated on par with Johns. I would put CHickeze much higher and lower Castro a few notches. The guitar/balladeer thing with Castro works now, but we'll see how far that takes him. CHickezee is a good performer, the problem with him up until last week has been song selection. He is versatile and charismatic which I think will take him a long way, probably not winning but I could see him knocking Carly or Johns out of the top 5.

03-15-2008, 02:59 PM	#8
schwa044 Junior Member Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 2	i'm with theEditor putting syesha that high is just silly

03-15-2008, 03:19 PM	#9
oscardahl Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: , , . Posts: 1,449,703	Syesha has almost zero chance to win this thing.

03-16-2008, 07:12 AM	#10
glucosis Posts: n/a	I think no matter how negative the judges are to any contestant, it's still the popular votes that matter. But sometimes, too much praising can be a kiss of death.